08 September 2008

Palin, Shy Republicans, &c.

The post-convention, post-Sarah Palin rollout confirm what I predicted the day McCain named Palin as his Vice Presidential nominee: She is a game changer.

USA Today is showing a 10 point lead for McCain/Palin among likely voters.
Zogby has him up by 4.
And Gallup shows him up by 5.

Granted, the 538 guys' model suggests a convention bounce that eventually regresses back to the mean. But the game changer wasn't the convention, per se. It was a combination of naming Palin and Palin's speech. This has to be measured separately to the outreach effort that was McCain's speech on the last night of the convention. That speech, as I wrote previously, was not for the the people at the Xcel Center or the base, it was for the Independents who are concerned about Obama's experience and wonder how in the world he's going to pay for all of his proposed programs (high taxes). McCain's bio and his criticism of his own party appeals to those voters. The latest polls, in part, reflect that.

In my opinion, the most significant thing to come out of the Palin pick/Palin speech was the result it had among the conservative base. In 2004 Bush won with conservatives turning out in huge numbers and that's pretty much it. My biggest concern from the day McCain became the presumptive nominee was that those people would stay home.

Palin has solved that problem. In fact, she has solved it in an incredible way. According to 538 and Ace, Republican identification is at its highest levels since immediately following the Bush innauguration. In terms of party ID, Democrats have always led Republicans. That it is now 48-47 Dems vs. Reps is significant. Needless to say, the Republican base votes more reliably than the twenthysomething hipsters who derive their cool from the Obama campaign. I defy them to show up to vote in November. I don't think it will happen. By then, voting Obama, Guitar Hero.* will be passé.

- Watch this story to see if it has legs. Specifically, the high level of coordination between the Obama campaign and the angry leftwing nuts of his party. Palin was announced as the nominee and this group of crazies manufactured ridiculous lie after ridiculous lie about her.

Needless to say, their attacks didn't have the desired effect as they drove curious voters to watch Palin in record numbers when she spoke at the convention. The Obama campaign saw the backlash and put out the word to leave her alone. Now, reports Ace, the Kos Kids crazy reports are being deleted because, Ace thinks (and I think he's right) the Obama campaign realized their attacks were repulsive and counterproductive. If the Obama camp is giving marching orders to dKos, DU, and HuffPo, this is a problem--as in, an election rules problem.

- Last point: The debate that compares Dems #1 to Reps #2 is proving to be the coup I thought it would be. A given group will argue the merits of Mayor vs. Community Organizer & Governor vs. 19 Month Campaign For President and then, midway through, realize that they are talking about #1 vs. #2 and how bad this is for Democrats. It makes John McCain look like the wisened, experienced leader.

*Over-the-top performance, no real skill or experience.

If you have tips, questions, comments or suggestions, email me at lybberty@gmail.com.