16 September 2008

Intrade Shows A John McCain Win

The latest trading data at Intrade shows John McCain leading Barack Obama, 51-47.3. This is a huge turnaround for McCain who was trading as low as 30 back in July.

I regularly follow 538, a blog run by Barack Obama supporters who work day jobs at Baseball Prospectus. These guys use principles they've gleaned from statistical analysis of baseball to more accurately predict the election based on polls. According to my admittedly rudimentary understanding of statistic and regression and everything, their model seems pretty good.

My brother, Matt, persuades me that Intrade is a better indicator than any poll because it takes into account information from across a much wider spectrum, a fuller sample of information--including information from insiders--and is not subject to the many potential pitfalls of a poll or series of polls.

(h/t: B. Berns: Yes, we should have bought low.)

If you have tips, questions, comments or suggestions, email me at lybberty@gmail.com.