09 August 2008

Fine Time For A Vacation

The grand dame of conservative politics, Peggy Noonan wrote about the almost imperceptible shift in the Presidential race yesterday. She wrote that for the first time in the election, it looks like John McCain just might maybe have a shot.

She's not alone in thinking so.

The trend & projection lines at fivethirtyeight.com seem to agree with her.

It doesn't help that Democrat leaders in Congress and Obama* are on the wrong side of the drill-here-now question. This really looks like a winner for Republicans in November. At the least it staunches the bloodletting everyone has predicted for the last 2+ years.

The Democrat brand has been taking hits. First, the news that wasn't new--John Edwards' affair. Then, Detroit Mayor, Kwame Kilpatrick (D) was arrested, again. We hate to bring up Eliot Spitzer, but, well, there he is too.

If Spitzer were still around, he likely would have had a prominent part to play in the DNC later this month. We know for certain John Edwards would have after his endorsement of Barack Obama when Hillary was still in it.

And speaking of Hillary, there are rumblings about how much of a symbolic show she wants to make of her run at the convention. After endorsing Obama, Hillary wasn't treated super well and that didn't sit well with Bill.

Imagine how this could play out at the convention. Former President Clinton speaks one night and we all know how good he is at the convention speaking thing. Then his wife, once-time-would-be President Clinton speaks the next night. Obama is good. But he and his speech writers are going to have to come with something extraespecially good for his speech to close things out.

Watch the trend lines and opinion polls. It's not unlikely that we get to the convention, listen to Bill and Hillary, and have mass nostalgia among the Democrat conventioneers.

All of this is to say that it is probably not the best time for Obama to join Congressional Democrats on vacation. Sure, Americans have said that they're on Obama-overload. But to whom, exactly, is he going to cede political airtime?

Oh yeah, the Olympics. Thank goodness for the Olympics.

*Guitar Hero: Over-the-top performance, no real skill or experience.

If you have tips, questions, comments, suggestions, or requests for subscription only articles, email us at lybberty@gmail.com.

No comments: