Quote Of The Week I - The Age Of Reagan (UPDATED)

One of my weekly must-read columnists, Daniel Henninger, writing in today's Journal:

Today Mr. Obama releases the details of his $3.5 trillion budget, his path to the same goal. Rather than drown as usual in this accounting morass, Republicans should contrast the Obama-Pelosi budget with the Reagan-Kemp philosophy of how a striving nation works, saves and invests.

Republicans can start by taking the time to read the first Obama budget document, "A New Era of Responsibility." The word "investment" occurs over 140 times in its 142 pages. But this "investment" isn't private capital invested in private start-ups, what Mr. Kemp constantly called "entrepreneurial capitalism" and what most parents hope their children will join. Mr. Obama's document genuflects to "the market economy," then argues that it won't endure unless we "sacrifice" (through tax increases) to make "overdue investments" (which literally only means public spending) on four explicit goals: green energy, infrastructure, public health care, and education.

[...]

It is not conceivable that a Reagan or Kemp would have directed the U.S. economy's legendary energies into building hybrid cars, windmills and bullet trains. It would not have occurred to them that America's next Silicon Valley -- Apple, Intel and Oracle -- could grow out of "investments" listed in the federal budget. This would not have occurred to either man because their politics were rooted in the 300-year-old, singularly American tradition of individuals freely deciding how to spend their productive hours and money inside a public system that mainly provides security and safety.

Don't make too much of the fact that only 31% of poll respondents said they were Republicans. It has always been the case that Republicans were more apt to answer that they were "conservatives" when asked about their political philosophy.

Last election's exit polling confirmed that this is still a conservative nation--a national full of conservatives who will usually vote for Republicans, when, of course, those Republicans espouse a conservative world view. Such has not always--especially recently--been the case.

This party identification thing is just a passing popularity poll. Haters' contention that losing Specter etc., is a sign of a Republican party in decline is also a whole lot of nothing. This is a conservative nation that prefers Republicans--even if they don't want to identify themselves as such. Tuesday's generic Congressional ballot poll conducted by Rasmussen confirms that. The GOP leads the Democrat Party, 40-39.

The Age of Reagan is far from over.

UPDATE 5:01pm BST: Steve Hayward @ The Corner is on the same page as Daniel Henninger & me:

More to the point — we've been here before, and Reagan showed the way out. After the post-Watergate 1974 election disaster, some polls showed the number of voters who identified as Republicans below 20 percent (compared to 31 percent today), and there were calls to abandon the Republican Party and found a new Conservative Party. Bill Buckley wrote at the time that the Republican Party had become “an administrative convenience for a few politicians,” and speculated that “If Reagan ran for President on an independent ticket, he would get a higher percentage of the vote than the Republican Party would get if it were led by any other American.” Reagan rejected this advice (which came also even more strongly from Bill Rusher), and it prompted one of his most famous speeches, before CPAC in 1975: “Is it a third party we need, or is it a new and revitalized second party, raising a banner of no pale pastels, but bold colors which makes it unmistakably clear where we stand on all of the issues troubling the people? Americans are hungry to feel once again a sense of mission and greatness.”

But there is another rant that needs registering, namely, that all those folks who claim to be Reaganites would take the time to sit down a study the man's methods — not his ideology — more seriously. As we now know, he worked extremely hard, studying the issues in depth and preparing and practicing his speeches at great length. I'm frankly appalled at the low level of rhetorical skill displayed by most GOP politicians today. It is not just a matter of talent; talent helps, but Reagan showed that hard work is the key ingredient. Too many of our would-be party leaders today are simply lazy, and think they can coast through speeches and media appearances with little forethought. Finally, Reagan lived by an old show-business adage — always leave your audience wanting more. His speeches were often memorable because they were relatively short. You could fit five of Reagan's state of the union speeches inside one of Bill Clinton's or George W. Bush's. (This means you, Governor Palin, whom I heard in Anchorage in March making a rambling hour-long speech that someone at my table rightly described as "Castroesque.") So try this out, GOP leaders: Shorter speeches. People will remember more of what you say, and want to hear you say more later. This really isn't rocket science. Heck, it isn't even political science.

Good things.

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Prepare For Overreach - Quote Of The Day

Philip Jenkins, American Conservative magazine, writing about 2008's similarities to 1976 (thanks to Political Diary):

The key mistake Democrats made [after Jimmy Carter won the White House] in 1976 was failing to realize what brought them to power. Democrats won because of public dissatisfaction with the previous regime, which had overseen the economic crisis, and also because of a wider fear that America would have to live with diminished expectations. But although they won on largely economic grounds, Democrats acted as if they had a sweeping mandate for cultural transformation -- for social libertarianism, affirmative action and egalitarianism, dovish internationalism, and idealistic notions of human rights. These ideas dominated a radical Congress and were enthusiastically adopted by the cohort of Carter appointments to the judiciary. They all ignored a basic principle: just because people are unhappy where they are does not mean they are willing to go anywhere you try to lead them.

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Obama: 'I Didn't Really Mean It' (UPDATED)

About complete withdrawal from Iraq, that is.

Which, as you readers already know, pleases me a great deal. I'm glad to see the airy rhetoric of Obama's many inane campaign promises (rubber) hit the proverbial road. As us realists always knew, those sorts of ridiculous promises were never going to work for real.

On the campaign trail, Senator Barack Obama offered a pledge that electrified and motivated his liberal base, vowing to “end the war” in Iraq.

But as he moves closer to the White House, President-elect Obama is making clearer than ever that tens of thousands of American troops will be left behind in Iraq, even if he can make good on his campaign promise to pull all combat forces out within 16 months.

“I said that I would remove our combat troops from Iraq in 16 months, with the understanding that it might be necessary — likely to be necessary — to maintain a residual force to provide potential training, logistical support, to protect our civilians in Iraq,” Mr. Obama said this week as he introduced his national security team.

Publicly at least, Mr. Obama has not set a firm number for that “residual force,” a phrase certain to become central to the debate on the way ahead in Iraq, though one of his national security advisers, Richard Danzig, said during the campaign that it could amount to 30,000 to 55,000 troops. Nor has Mr. Obama laid out any timetable beyond 16 months for troop drawdowns, or suggested when he believes a time might come for a declaration that the war is over.

In the meantime, military planners are drawing up tentative schedules aimed at meeting both Mr. Obama’s goal for withdrawing combat troops, with a target of May 2010, and the Dec. 31, 2011, date for sending the rest of American troops home that is spelled out in the new agreement between the United States and the Iraqi government.

That status-of-forces agreement remains subject to change, by mutual agreement, and Army planners acknowledge privately that they are examining projections that could see the number of Americans hovering between 30,000 and 50,000 — and some say as high as 70,000 — for a substantial time even beyond 2011.

Like Ace, I wonder what his supporters will say now to excuse his betrayal of what was the most important issue to them during this campaign: The complete and total withdrawal of American "occupying" forces from Iraq.

Obamaniacs, commence tying yourselves in nuanced knots.

(h/t Hot Air & Ace)

UPDATED 2:28pm BST: Typically, I'm content to just mention some point about how Obama's not living up to his promise, make a snarky comment, and leave it at that. Fortunately, people like Ryan D. at Pendulum Politics exist to actually look at the substance of the situation.


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What This Election Wasn't, Part 137

There is so much misinformation floating around out there, I could spend all my time reading and debunking the electoral interpretations of various pundits. Don't worry, I won't. I'll focus on the ones that interest me most.

Andrew Gelman, no conservative partisan, has the first one:

The election was pretty close. Obama won by about 5% of the vote, consistent with the latest polls and consistent with his forecast vote based on forecasts based on the economy.

(emphasis in original)

After all the reports we got about how transformational this election would be, how the youth vote would turn out in record numbers and how turnout itself would blow every previous election out of the water.

Well, it didn't. 18% of young voters turned out compared to 17% last time.

Yeah, Obama-hipsters, speak truth to power!

And overall turnout? Roughly comparable to 2004--even with all of the fake, dead, & felonious signed up by ACORN.

As for realignment? Nothing to see here. Jennifer Marsico of AEI:

The 2008 election was an important election. But it can hardly be considered realigning.

Mr. Obama won by portraying the Bush presidency as a series of mistakes that need to be avoided in the future -- essentially encouraging voters to think about the short-term past, not the long-term future.

Put another way, Mr. Obama got about 40,000 fewer votes in Ohio than John Kerry got four years ago. Mr. Obama carried the state when Mr. Kerry did not because Republicans stayed home. Nationally, the anticipated record turnout didn't materialize. About the same percentage of registered voters came out this year as in 2004. And was that a realignment year?

(emphasis added)

Wholesale rejection of conservatism? Nah, not buying it. I'll give you rejection of Bush and critique of the current economic crisis, but neither of these things are a knock on conservatism as an ideology. Republicans may be down for the count, but it's not because of their ideology. There is a wide divide between ideology and implementation.

More from Gelman (click the link for accompanying scatterplots):

The red/blue map was not redrawn; it was more of a national partisan swing. The standard deviation of the state swings (excluding D.C. and the unusual case of Hawaii) was 3.3%. That is, after accounting for the national swing in Obama’s favor, most of the states were within 3% of where they were, compared to their relative positions in 2004.

The standard deviation of these state swings was 2.4%. This was even less variation–2004 was basically a replay of 2000–still, the relative state swings of 3.3% in 2008 were not large by historical standards.

Again, Obama didn’t redraw the map; he shifted the map over in his favor. (Or, to put it more precisely, the economy shifted the map over in the Democrats’ favor and Obama took advantage of this.)

(italics added, bold in original)

Folks, the election is no more complicated than this. Trace the trajectory of the polls and the take a look at the exit poll data (Scroll down to the last bit of data. I think you'll find that the economy numbers match up pretty well with the overall election numbers).

The tanking of the economy in middle September through October lost John McCain this election. Granted, correlation doesn't prove causation, but we've got some pretty strong evidence.


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Programming Note: Dialing It Back A Bit

As many of you have noticed (an emailed as such), I've taken a bit of a break over the last weekend. In the run-up to the election I was posting sometimes as many as 10-12 times a day. Needless to say, with a PhD that needs researching and writing, that's a pace I cannot maintain.

But I won't let this thing die altogether. Too many of you are reading and emailing me good stuff. I'll carry on posting--though probably closer to 1-2 times per day--while picking my NewsBusters stuff up a bit. I'll be sure and posts links here when I write something there.

One of my duties at NewsBusters is posting links to interesting articles in the "Editors' Picks" sidebar. If you come across something particularly good that you think would be of interest to 300,000 readers of conservative, media-bias hating readers, email it my way and I'll get it posted.

Thanks again for all your emails--complimentary and not. Keep 'em coming. Our guy may not have won the election, but that doesn't mean the fight is over. We won an important victory in California by passing Prop 8, but that fight isn't over either.

Now we have to do what we can to oppose His Oneness's liberal-socialist agenda and continue to defend marriage at the state and federal level. One woman or man standing up for what's right inspires others around them to do the same.

Be that person.


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Voter Fraud &c.

This was hardly the first year people questioned the efficacy of our voter system. I mean, just because ACORN signed up more dead and imaginary people than every before doesn't mean this is the first time this has happened.

People, as I recall, were pretty ticked in the aftermath of 2000 with the Florida recount and other stories about voting issues.

JFK famously won the election with the help of tens of thousands of double & dead voters in Chicago. Tammany Hall in NYC was particularly good at this sort of thing and was/is the model for the Chicago machine.

It won't surprise any of you to know that these are all Democrat party machines.

It also won't surprise any of you to know that they are the ones who, year after year, oppose efforts to standardize voting requirements to bring a modicum of legitimacy to our electoral system. Heaven forbid we actually require a picture ID when someone votes.

After following this pretty regularly for the last couple of months and posting Morgan H.'s experience voting in LA, reader Victor S. emailed me the link to his new blog where he wrote a bit of a counterpoint to my many attacks. He's a good guy and his blog is worth a read.

He writes, in part:

The point I'm driving towards is this: the elections are as fair, in my view, as humanly possible. No, they are not perfect. Yes, there are sometimes minor errors, but the elections are fair, and those involved try to do the best job possible.

Yes, Victor, I've no doubt they are as fair as humanly possible. I'd like to make them as fair as inhumanly possible. That is to say, I'd like to subtract, as much as possible, the possibility for human caused error and fraud.

Requiring photo ID in every state would be a good start.


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At Least I've Got Megyn Kelly

I can't read Ace. I can't read Glenn Reynolds. No Drudge, either.

This sucks.

And then they tell me Obama won PA, which is like kicking a guy when he's down. But, you know, they called FL for Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004, so you never know.


If you have tips, questions, comments or suggestions, email me at lybberty@gmail.com.

More Examples Of Voter Fraud

Dateline Dixville Notch, New Hampshire:

Democrat Barack Obama came up a big winner in the presidential race in Dixville Notch, N.H., where the nation's first Election Day votes were cast and counted early Tuesday.

Obama defeated John McCain 15-6. Independent Ralph Nader was also on the ballot, but received no votes.

The first voter, following tradition established in 1948, was picked ahead of the midnight voting and the rest of the town's 19 registered voters followed suit in Tuesday's first minutes.

Town Clerk Rick Erwin says the northern New Hampshire town is proud of its tradition, but says the most important thing is that the turnout represents 100 percent vote.

19 registered voters, but somehow Obama defeated McCain 15-6? Huh?

They can't even stop voter fraud in a ward with just 19 registered voters.


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Joe The Plumber Is Awesome

This is a great example of media bias and liberal attitudes towards blue collar workers wrapped up in one clip.

You mean you don't want to take other people's money? Why not, Joe?

"Principles."

Notice the liberal CNN talking head's complete disdain for Joe's dreams of owning his own plumbing business.

"You're nowhere near having enough money to do that!"

If you have tips, questions, comments or suggestions, email me at lybberty@gmail.com.

Voting Reform Needed

Every time Republicans have tried to push through reform of the voting process, Democrats have blocked it claiming "voter suppression."

What they really mean is that they reserve the right to commit voter fraud.

Consider reader Morgan H.'s experience and ask yourself if this is really how it should be:

So I voted today. I was shocked by how dysfunctional the whole process was. I didn't have to show ID. I just told them my name and they found my name on a roster and I initialed next to it. When I was actually voting it was marking bubbles on a scantron sheet. From my Emmys experience, I KNOW how many problems there can be with scantrons. Also, it would be quite easy to "adjust" the ballot box thing so that the incorrect bubbles are marked without the marker knowing an error was made. The wording on the ballot, especially for all the various propositions was also very confusing and often times quite biased, either for or against a proposition. I can totally see how older or uneducated people could be confused by the whole process. I know I was and I don't consider myself to be too old nor too uneducated. After I was done marking the scantron, I wandered around trying to find out what I was supposed to do with my ballot. I finally found a guy at a table who said he would take it. I gave it to him and that was that. As I walked out of the building (Santa Monica City Hall) I realized that I have no idea if my vote will actually be counted. It may have ended up in a trash can. It may be fed through the scanner backwards or upside down. It may get lost. Who knows? I sure don't.

So as I was driving to work I didn't feel good about doing my civic duty. I felt anxious because I didn't trust the whole process at all. I didn't feel comfortable that my scantron was marked the way I intended. I didn't feel comfortable that my scantron would be counted correctly. I didn't feel comfortable that dead people or people claiming to be other people were not voting. I just didn't feel comfortable. There has to be a better way to vote. It isn't like we are living in the early 1900's. We have technology. Let's use it. I think proper technology would reduce fraud, improve accuracy, and produce valid results on a much more timely basis.

So what I am really trying to get at is that I am really, really, really, (yes three reallys) happy that the whole election crap is over.

Amen.


If you have tips, questions, comments or suggestions, email me at lybberty@gmail.com.

Election Night Treats

This is how we do it in London. Courtesy of my Brit flat-mate, Sebastian D.:

You'll forgive, of course, the 15 stripes and 28 stars. I'd like to see you do better.


If you have tips, questions, comments or suggestions, email me at lybberty@gmail.com.

"Get In Their Face"

More Obama "grassroots." Looks like the local Black Panthers chapter took The One's injunction to get in people's faces literally.

From Drudge.


If you have tips, questions, comments or suggestions, email me at lybberty@gmail.com.

Why 9/11 Still Matters

From Bret Stephens:

[...] not everything is susceptible to transcendence. Terrorists will not be less dangerous by being contextualized in a matrix of threats that includes climate change and global poverty, or because they will be mollified by Mr. Obama's middle name. Nor will Iran be deterred from developing nuclear weapons because a President Obama will restore faith in "brand America."

A global financial crisis has now given voters a fresh reason to turn the page on the 9/11 era and attend to a different set of fears. Electing a "transformational" president might even ease the transition. But it bears keeping in mind that America's second Pearl Harbor only took place when we were well on the road to forgetting about the first one.

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5 (Actually 6) Reasons To Be Optimistic For McCain

These come from a lecture I attended last week at my MA alma mater, UCL. The lecture was given by Adam Smith, the professor who taught my Lincoln course. He is a sharp and savvy observer of American politics both in the contemporary sense and historically. He is also a liberal supporter of Barack Obama. Like pretty much everyone else in higher ed.

Without further ado:

5 (really 6) reasons to be optimistic for John McCain:
- Obama's weak finish in the primaries (ed. note: performing 2.8% worse than he polled)
- The U.S. is still a conservative country.
- A relatively high number of undecideds (ed. note: who look like they're breaking towards McCain)
- race (ed. note: by this he & liberal pundits mean 'Americans are racist,' but a better way to understand it is that people don't want to be perceived as being racist, so they say they're voting for Obama when really they're voting for McCain. The so-called "Bradley Effect" or some derivative thereof.)
- older voters may determine outcome in OH, FL, IN, CO (ed. note: most of the people I've spoken with during my GOTV calling have been seniors. And they all said two things: 'I already voted' AND 'I voted for John McCain.' Small sample, whatever.)
- focus on taxes narrowing polls (ed. note: he couldn't have seen it, but those just tuning in have seen Obama the "Redistributor." And, Obama's desire to "bankrupt" the coal industry can't play well in Pennsylvania & Ohio.

There you have it, Smith's 5 (nay, 6) reasons to be optimistic for McCain. He gave 5 reason for Obama too, but I don't want to be a buzzkill. And I'm an eternal optimist, so there's that.


If you have tips, questions, comments or suggestions, email me at lybberty@gmail.com.

More Reasons For Optimism

From Jim Geraghty at Campaign Spot, his friend, the man they call "Obi-Wan." Let the Democrats and moderates get their poll-predicting information from complex statistical modeling and empirical evidence. As for me, I'll take the word of a Star Wars hero:

Look, the real drama to this election is being provided not by the candidates but the polling community. By which I mean the decision they made to stake out — as Campaign Spot has noted — a remarkably bold position, that the Democratic Party turnout is not only going to exceed a recent historic advantage of 4 percent but go to 6.5 percent (Rasmussen) to 8 percent in many polls to even 12 percent in one.

I keep looking for the justification for this. Not easy to find. Rather like the academics' one-time belief in the Aristotlean spheres and an earth-centered universe, it just seems to be a pretty good working theory — some sort of way to make sense of observable phenomena and keep all the smart people talking agreeably and pleasantly among themselves.

[...]

In the old days the networks had political directors like Marty Plissner and Hal Bruno who kept an eye on the tendency to politicize the number-crunchers. What happens when that sort of internal check is lost was evidenced by the spectacular embarrassment – the debacle — of the exit polls in 2004. (Obi ) The polite explanation was that the skewing resulted from the fact that Democratic voters are more likely to talk to polling representatives at the polls. What got buried was the fact studies found that the cultural-political backgrounds of the exit-poll employees was a big factor.

Anyway, back in the days when exit polls were reliable — if a first or second wave of numbers were seen similar to the McCain-Obama battleground polls that came out today the network insiders would have been saying: hold everything, this is a very close one. (That's because they usually wacked two or three points off the Democrats' total since urban areas get better represented in the exit polls.)

So, if the polling community is basically right in their turnout models, this is looking like '64 — a nightmare scenario for the GOP. But if they are off to any significant degree, the state polls seen today (even though some of them favor a high Dem turnout model) make this a very different race. And what about the outlier polls in Pennsylvania and even one in Minnesota showing a close race?

And there are other questions. What about the reaction to media bias (Obamamania, the resentment towards Sarah Palin and Joe the Plumber) driving up Republican turnout? What about the extent to which Reagan Democrats in Florida are being urged to the polls by the McCain campaign?

And the reason that the polling community, not to mention the Obama campaign should be uneasy is that finding the justification for their heavy Democratic weighting isn't readily accessible. And that is the point – along with failing to themselves take note that in this period of unprecedented economic turmoil and therefore any predictions this year might be questionable or at least hugely complicated, the pollsters and media gurus never really put their own premises about voter turnout front and center and asked for questions, objections and evaluations.

They seem to have slipped into a world of easy assumptions. Always dangerous for those whose job is to quantify and track the stars and planets of an ever-changing, ever-moving political universe.

Ignore the exit polls, wait for the real voting tallies to come in.

For those of you who prefer "stats" to "Star Wars," this seems like as good of a time as any to re-link to Iowahawk's little ditty on the supposed scientificness of polls and stats behind them.

Let me put it this way: Things with a lot fewer variables and even lower probability happen all the time.

If you have tips, questions, comments or suggestions, email me at lybberty@gmail.com.

Vote For McCain: My Last, Best Shot

For the last 10 months, I have been blogging, thinking, reading and talking a lot about this election. My guy, Romney, didn't make it past the primaries. But that's OK, I'm pretty happy with the one we've got.

Much of the case I have been making over the last few months has been against Barack Obama. It's important because I don't think he is qualified on any number of levels--experience (he has none), judgment (opposing The Surge, his Chicago friendships), etc., and because I don't like his politics. His policies reflect the most socialist agenda this country has seen FDR. He wants the government to take more of your money and in exchange, he'll take over your health care, your mortgage, and more.

Long story short, Barack Obama is in favor of expanding the nanny-state. This is a move that will include more hand-outs and goodies, but which encroaches on individual liberty. It is a worldview against which I am firmly opposed. Additionally, I cannot abide Obama's pro-abortion position.

But this election is more than an opportunity to vote against Barack Obama, it's a chance to vote for John McCain. Whatever else you know about John McCain, know this: John McCain is a real American hero. He's not a hero just because he was a POW, he's an American hero because of how he responded to that 5-and-a-half year hell. They offered to have a doctor treat his multiple injuries if he would give up secrets and denounce the war, he refused. He was in solitary confinement for 2 years.

Like Fred Thompson said at the RNC, "John knows something about hope, that's all he had." Given the opportunity to leave early, ahead of those who had arrived before him, John turned them down flatly, out of honor. They broke his ribs and teeth in punishment. Instead of giving up secrets while being beaten, John gave them the o-line of the Green Bay Packers.

These experiences reveal something to us about John McCain: When the times are tough and painful and there seems to be very little hope, John McCain will do the right thing.

For me, personally, nothing exemplifies this better than John McCain's support of The Surge. When everyone else was jumping ship to save their political lives, John McCain argued forcefully and persuasively in favor of The Surge. Almost alone, John stood up for the troops who have fought, bled and died in Iraq. He ensured that their sacrifice would not be for nothing. Against the odds and to the surprise of Obama and others, The Surge has been wildly successful. Iraq should now become a peaceful, democratic ally of the United States. In large measure, we have John McCain to thank for this development.

John McCain has shown, in a small hut in North Vietnam and in the United States Senate that he is willing and able to make the right choice, regardless of how it may hurt him personally and politically. He will always do what is best for this country. He has always served and loved this country.

Much to the chagrin of many conservatives, John McCain has often partnered with Democrats to craft legislation that we do not like. I don't say this to persuade Republicans, but to persuade Independents and reasonable liberals. Those who argue that John McCain is a "right-wing nut" or has adopted extreme positions, either doesn't know what they are talking about, or is so far left politically, that moderate positions have become extreme to them.

Senator McCain is a conservative, but conservatism is probably not his guiding political principle. I believe his overarching, highest order principle is honor. In all things John McCain is honorable. If he says he will do something, you can take that to the bank. It is as good as done. You can count on John McCain.

I don't agree with Senator McCain on everything. I'm frustrated by tendency towards populism and strongly dislike his co-sponsored campaign finance reform. But I know that he doesn't take these positions (populist though they may be), that he hasn't passed this legislation, because it is popular or designed to get him elected. I trust John McCain to do what he says and to always act in good faith. I do not similarly trust Barack Obama.

Senator McCain sees this country the way Ronald Reagan did--as a city on a hill, a beacon of liberty and freedom, a land of opportunity and goodness. Sure, John and I will both admit, we--collectively speaking of America--have our problems, but America is not fundamentally flawed and in need of the wholesale change Barack Obama has promised. We do not need to adopt new, foreign ideals. We do not need to change the notion of the American dream.

We simply need to return to original principles and ideals--ideals and principles which were laid out clearly in the Contitution--a document which limits government and guarantees individual liberty--and the Declaration of Independence--a singular work that derives our rights as Americans as being endowed by our creator, being, in essence, things which could be neither given, nor taken away by any government. They cannot be taken away and are not government-given because they are our inalienable, God-given rights.

This is John McCain's vision of America--fundamentally good and often great, a beacon of hope, liberty, and opportunity.

This is the America I see and the one in which I believe.

For this reason and many more, I urge you to join with me in voting for John Mccain.


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From The Desk Of John McCain

My Friend,

From the time I entered the Naval Academy at age seventeen I have been privileged and honored to serve my country.

Throughout my years of service, I've been faced with challenges where I could have taken the easy way out and given up. But I'm an American and I never give up. Instead, I choose to show courage and stand up and fight for the country I love. Today, I am asking you to stand with me and to fight for our country's future.

Our country faces enormous challenges and our next president must be ready to lead on day one. My lifetime of experience has prepared me to lead our great nation. I'm prepared to bring solutions to our economic challenges, bring our troops home in victory and improve our nation's healthcare system.

Time and time again, my country has saved my life and I owe her more than she has ever owed me. I have chosen to show my gratitude through a life of service to our country and tomorrow, you will have a choice before you.

I humbly ask you to make the choice that will allow me to serve my country a little while longer by casting your vote to elect me as your next President of the United States.

Finally, I ask that you never forget that much has been sacrificed to protect our right to vote. We must never forget those Americans who, with their courage, with their sacrifice, and with their lives, have protected our freedom. It is my great hope that you will exercise your right to vote as an American tomorrow.

I thank you for your kind support, your dedication to our cause, and most importantly I thank you for your vote.

With sincere appreciation,

John McCain

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Do Something: Get Out The Vote - Email To Your Friends Edition, Re-Post

If, like me, you'd prefer not to see America elect the most liberal-left President in modern history, with Pelosi controlling the House, and Reid the Senate, thereby enabling them to make us Canada Jr., how about a little GOTV?

(no offense to my Canadian readers)

We're close and closing. And anyway, nobody knows what to expect with the polls this year. They were wildly inaccurate during the primaries and they've been all over the place the last few weeks. The word "volatile" comes to mind.

Whether you are in a Battleground state for McCain, California for Proposition 8, or Washington State for Dino Rossi, volunteer a little time and make some calls or pound the pavement and visit some Republicans & undecideds.

PUT JOHN McCAIN & SARAH PALIN IN THE WHITE HOUSE?

PASS PROPOSITION 8?

GET DINO ROSSI ELECTED?

MAINTAIN A FILIBUSTER IN THE SENATE?

YES WE CAN!!!!!1!!!

UPDATE 31 October 12:45pm BST: A little research has revealed an interesting fact: During the primaries, Barack Obama performed, on average, 2.8 points worse than he polled in the 3 days leading up to the election.

Call this whatever you want, I call this hope we can believe in.

Also, be sure and check out the Iowahawk post I linked to earlier today. His explanation of the statistics behind polling should also provide a bit of optimistic comfort.

Finally, I don't know how I missed this before: For all those of you who, like me, can't get to a McCain camp calling center, for whatever reason, click here, to sign up to make calls online. Even if you can only do it for 15 mins--do it. Do it for 15 mins every day from now until the election.

For advice and more on how to successfully do this, check out Gabriel Malor's post at Ace.

UPDATE 1 November 2:08am BST: I've got GOTV information for my favorite states. I narrowed down from the Top 10 states in terms of visits to OL&L to the states that could impact things. They are:

- California w/Prop 8 and the fact that so many of you are from there and can call out.
- Pennsylvania. Yep, I was surprised too. There are quite a few of you PA readers. And you live in a hotly contested state.
- Virginia - We'll see if this traditionally red state is really going to go for Obama. In fact, this will be an early bellweather on election night. You readers get out and do your job: make calls for McCain.
- Washington - Do what you can for Dino Rossi and make calls into other states.
- I think there's a Georgia Victory Center listed in there somewhere too. Lots of Georgia readers. Thanks, guys.

Anyway, thanks to Fernando M. for hosting the spreadsheet with all the info. Click here to download and get to work.

Alternatively, you can always make calls from the safety of your own home by using your computer.

UPDATE 2 November 12:47am BST: In cased you missed it.... Zogby's 1 day polling puts McCain up by 1--48-47. It ain't over till it's over.

UPDATE 3 November 1:40am BST: TIPP has it Obama 46, McCain 44. And remember, Obama, Guitar Hero* performs 2.8% worse than he polls.

Yeah he does.

*Over-the-top performance, no real skill or experience.


If you have tips, questions, comments or suggestions, email me at lybberty@gmail.com.

A Few More Reasons For Optimism

John Podhoretz of Commentary identifies 10 reasons John McCain might just be able to pull this thing off. I chose my favorites. Click the link to see the rest.

1) One poll has undecided voters at 14 percent on the last weekend, which means most of them probably really aren’t undecided, that they are either going to stay home or vote preponderantly for McCain and pull McCain across the finish line.

2) Most pollsters are claiming the electorate this year is six to nine points more Democratic than it is Republican. That would be an unprecedented shift from four years ago, when the electorate was evenly divided, 37-37, Republican and Democratic, and a huge shift from two years ago, when it was 37-33 Democratic. A shift of this size didn’t even happen after Watergate.

3) Obama frequently outpolled his final result in primaries, which might have many causes but might also indicate that he has difficulty closing the sale.

4) The argument in the past two weeks has shifted, such that many undecided voters who are now paying attention are hearing about Obama’s redistributionist tendencies at exactly the right moment for McCain.

8) What happened with the Joe the Plumber story is that Obama has now been effectively outed as a liberal, not a moderate; and because liberalism is still less popular than conservatism, that’s not the best place for Obama to be.

9) The fire lit under Obama’s young supporters in the winter was largely due to Iraq and his opposition to the war. The stunning decline in violence and the departure of Iraq from the front page has put out the fire, to the extent that, like the young woman who made a sexy video calling herself Obama Girl and then didn’t vote in the New York primary because she went to get a manicure, they might not want to stand on line on Tuesday.

In case you didn't know, because you're not a long-time reader, another of my biases is my native, eternal optimism.


If you have tips, questions, comments or suggestions, email me at lybberty@gmail.com.

Barack 'Ego' Obama

Would it surprise anyone to know that the teenaged girl-like adoration the Obamaniacs have shown The One has gone to his head? I didn't think so.

The Obamaniacs have fueled the egO-maniac

Thomas Sowell:

Barack Obama has the kind of cocksure confidence that can only be achieved by not achieving anything else.

Anyone who has actually had to take responsibility for consequences by running any kind of enterprise— whether economic or academic, or even just managing a sports team— is likely at some point to be chastened by either the setbacks brought on by his own mistakes or by seeing his successes followed by negative consequences that he never anticipated.

The kind of self-righteous self-confidence that has become Obama’s trademark is usually found in sophomores in Ivy League colleges— very bright and articulate students, utterly untempered by experience in the real world.

The signs of Barack Obama’s self-centered immaturity are painfully obvious, though ignored by true believers who have poured their hopes into him, and by the media who just want the symbolism and the ideology that Obama represents.

The triumphal tour of world capitals and photo-op meetings with world leaders by someone who, after all, was still merely a candidate, is just one sign of this self-centered immaturity.

(emphasis added)

I wish Sowell were on the ballot tomorrow--though not, as some of my euro-phile friends wish, as 3rd party candidate.


If you have tips, questions, comments or suggestions, email me at lybberty@gmail.com.