Less coherent than some other posts, the topics of this post have nothing to do with each other--other than the fact that they are all things that interest me. I start by responding to a critique of Darrell Jackson (aka the greatest WR in the NFL), move on to propagandizing a TV show I thoroughly enjoy and am afraid is going to get cancelled, and finally, make good on a promise to promote a blog written by one of my students. He didn't ask me to, but since he patronized mine I figured I'd return the favor.
Darrell Jackson
In an earlier column I stated my belief that Darrell Jackson would have challenged Steve Smith for best WR in the league. I stand by that claim. An analysis of his performance in every game this season is not fair to Jackson. In the last few regular season games he was coming back from knee surgery and his play was limited and hardly at 100%. A more fair assessment would be to examine the games before his injury and extrapolate those numbers over 16 games. Seattle's first four games were against Jacksonville, Arizona, Atlanta and Washington. Arizona excepting, all these games featured some of the best defenses in the league. His results? 29 receptions for 376 yards and 2 TDs. At the time of his injury he was #3 in the league. This despite being injured in the fourth game against Washington. Though four games are an admittedly small sample, they do represent 25% of the season and were against some of the toughest defense. Does anyone doubt that his numbers would have improved against the likes of St. Louis, Houston and another against Arizona?
Using the numbers from those four gamesDarrell Jackson would have finished the season with a modest 116 receptions, more than Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, or Santana Moss. His 1504 yards would have given him more than Moss or Johnson and just 59 less than Smith. TDs are harder to estimate, but considering he has scored in 5 of 8 games played, despite limited time in the game vs. Washington and late season games due to injury, it's not hard to project a 10 TD season. 10 TDs would give him one more than both Moss and Johnson and 2 less than Smith.
Arrested Development
2+ years ago my friend Danny from Farmington (UT not CA) started telling me about Arrested Development. He said it was the funniest show on television. Just before Christmas, my brother Matt began watching this show. Soon after, I followed his example and have not been disappointed. There is a subtle sense of humor to the show. For the most part, the comedy appeals to intelligent viewers, which is probably why I enjoy it so much. My favorite character is G.O.B., though they are all excellent with their own brand of humor. Following Buster's example, Matt has taken to calling me "brother." Its the type of humor that finds its way into your daily life.
Despite critical acclaim, and campaigns by groups like "Save Our Bluths," this show is in danger of being banished to the realm of cancellation and cable re-runs. Season 3 was shortened and the final two episodes are to play during the same time slot as the Opening Ceremony of the Winter Olympics in Torino. This is a pretty good indicator of what Fox thinks of this cerebral comedy. Click on the link to "Save Our Bluths" and join the campaign. If you haven't seen an episode of Arrested Development, wake up. It's the best thing going, today.
Phantasmatron
I ashamed to admit it, but I often use the captive audiences of my American Heritage labs to promote my blog. Some students turn into devoted readers adding to the growing community of readers. Unfortunately too few post comments. I think they are scared away by critical comments. I think it was Dennis Miller, in one of his many famous rants, who said that if someone makes fun of you (paraphrasing as usual), you shouldn't run away and hide but get that little weed whacker of a brain going and come up with a rejoinder. After one of my self-promoting sessions in lab last week I was interested to find that one student had posted about the painful experience that is my American Heritage lab.
I was pleased to read a post or three that was well-written and had a unique sort of self-conscious humor. I especially enjoyed his post entitled "Nerd Eat Nerd," though I think it would benefit from a little more material. He has hit upon a humorous truism and the trick of these things is in the knowing details. Fair assessment?
3 comments:
First of all i just read your students blog. Let me say what you were actually thinking. It was a huge waste of time even while i was trying(successfully might i add) to do such. It was weak.
Darrell Jackson poor D-Jack. Lets take a little pool here. D-Jack or R. Moss? D-Jack or M. Harrison? D-Jack or T.O.? Lets all be honest with ourselves for a moment. Who do you want to be throwing the rock to when the game is on the line? I will give respect where respect is due and compliment Darrell on what is a great year not only for himself but for his team. But, lets not put him in with the stars just yet.
I second the support of D Jackson but agree that he is not yet one of the stars. After reading the latest projected stats for the season I decided to take a more in depth look using a simple (yet statistically sound) trend function. For the 4 game projection Jackson would have ended the season with 1572 and for the six game season he would have ended with 1316. The caveat however is that for the 4 game season the r-squared value is .0002 and for the 6 game season the r-squared is only .0344. This indicates that the probability of these projections being correct is extremely extremely low. Although, the 6 game projection is not a good indicator it is still much better than the 4 game projection. One must also factor in the margin of error associated with such projections. When the sample size is decreased the standard deviation increases which means that at a 95% level of confidence the margin of error which is equal to 2 standard deviations is wider. Smaller margins of error mean that a person can be more comfortable with the projections. Who knows, maybe D Jackson would have exceeded the output by Steve Smith. By using a 4 game projection the possibility is definately there. However, more datapoints is always better than less datapoints because it gives greater precision.
As a side note, the Arizona defense ranked 12 this year for overall defense and allowed 193.6 yds per game. Contrary to popular perception, their defense is not that bad considering that Jacksonville, the number 7 ranked defense gave up 184.1 yards per game.
Essentially what I am getting at is that projecting output with a VERY limited sample size is risky at best and not an accurate indicator of performance. Especially in the NFL when there are so many different variables ie weather conditions, crappy qbs, double and triple teams, etc. D Jackson is a good receiver but he needs more data points to indicate that his playoff outburst is not an outlier.
any leads on superbowl tickets yet?
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