Showing posts with label Tony Blair. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tony Blair. Show all posts

03 February 2010

Iraq: The Unapologetic Tony Blair

And with good reason. The logic he and President Bush used to invade Iraq and take down Saddam was sound and based on the best available information.

In the wake of his testimony before yet another UK inquisition, the WSJ cribbed a few of his best quotes and reminded us all of what we knew, what we didn't know, and why Iraq was and remains important.
[...]

Mr. Blair offered a ringing defense of the decision to invade Iraq, and a very different set of lessons for the present. "This isn't about a lie, or a conspiracy, or a deceit, or a deception. It is a decision," Mr. Blair told a packed room that included relatives of soldiers killed in Iraq. "And the decision I had to take was, given [Saddam's] history, given his use of chemical weapons, given the over one million people whose deaths he had caused, given 10 years of breaking U.N. resolutions, could we take the risk of this man reconstituting his weapons program?"

That's a point worth remembering over all the Monday-morning recriminations about "dodgy dossiers" and missing WMD. We have never for a moment believed that the British or U.S. governments deliberately misled their publics over what they thought they knew about Saddam's weapons. Every Western country, including those opposed to the war, believed Saddam had WMD.

But the important point was never so much about what Saddam did or did not possess so much as it was about what he intended. And as Mr. Blair pointed out Friday, "What we now know is that he [Saddam] retained the intent and the intellectual know-how to restart a nuclear and a chemical weapons program when the inspectors were out and the sanctions changed, which they were going to do. . . .

"Today we would be facing a situation where Iraq was competing with Iran, competing both on nuclear weapons capability and competing more importantly perhaps than anything else . . . in respect of support of terrorist groups. . . . If I am asked whether I believe we are safer, more secure, that Iraq is better, that our own security is better, with Saddam and his two sons out of office and out of power, I believe indeed we are."

Mr. Blair was no less clear-eyed about the threat posed today by Iran and its nuclear program, against which he counseled that the international community had to take a "very hard, tough line." Iranian interference was a large reason why the Iraq war "very nearly" failed. Iran remains a sponsor of terrorism and a cause of instability from Afghanistan to Lebanon. The lesson from the Iraq war isn't to avoid action for fear of unanticipated consequences, which are inevitable in any war. It is to take action to prevent the most foreseeable of disasters, namely the combination, in a single regime, of fanaticism, links to terrorism and nuclear weapons.

"The decision I took—and frankly would take again—was, if there was any possibility that he [Saddam] could develop weapons of mass destruction, we would stop him," Mr. Blair told the commission. Listening to him, we are reminded why he ranks with Margaret Thatcher as a pre-eminent statesman of postwar British politics, an achievement unlikely to be matched by the Lilliputians who seek to embarrass him.
Polite British academic company (including my supervisors, etc.) requires that I keep my admiration of Blair (at least on this point) to myself. The shroud of semi-anonymity (at least enough that I can plausibly deny and they can plausibly ignore) allows my full confession of guilt here: I reluctantly endorsed the decision to invade all the way back when (when all the Democrats voted for it and the public heavily supported it) and stand by that decision now.

Things could and would be a heck of a lot worse.

(h/t Scott L.)


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08 June 2009

Lame Labour: Gordon Brown's Dead-Man Walk

In the winter of 2007, I sat in Peter Hennessy's "Hidden Wiring" grad seminar at Queen Mary, University of London, and listened to someone observe that as much as everyone despised Tony Blair for Iraq, they might watch Gordon Brown for a year or 2 and wish Blair were still at 10 Downing Street.

In their wildest dreams, they could not have anticipated the prescience of their statement.

In addition to the right-ward shift in European politics, the recent local & EU elections combined to inflict what can only be described as beating-a-dead-horse blows on Gordon Brown.
Labour suffered its biggest defeat in history last week, when it placed third in local council elections, winning 23% of the vote, behind Conservatives and Liberal Democrats with 38% and 28% respectively. Labour may have fared even worse in the vote for the European Parliament. The final results were published last night after we went to press, but the British media cited Labour officials over the weekend who feared their party would come in behind the Tories and Liberal Democrats, and even the fringe U.K. Independence Party.
Nothing short of an economic miracle will save Gordon Brown and Labour in the next election... and even that might not be enough.


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13 November 2008

More Evidence Sarah Palin Didn't Lose The Election

Don't listen to David Brooks. He doesn't like Sarah Palin and doesn't like social conservatives. You know this before you read his column. This is his bias. Dick Morris hates the Clintons and wants to win. This is his bias. Here's his read on Sarah Palin's effect on the election:
Sarah Palin made a vast difference in McCain’s favor. Compared to 2004, McCain lost 11 points among white men, according to the Fox News exit poll, but only four points among white women. Obama’s underperformance among white women, evident throughout the fall, may be chalked up, in large part, to the influence of Sarah Palin. She provided a rallying point for women who saw their political agenda in terms larger than abortion. She addressed the question of what it is like to be a working mother in today’s economy and society and resonated with tens of millions of white women who have not responded to the more traditional, and liberal, advocates for their gender.
Add this to the numbers Palin drew to her campaign events--literally tens of thousands of people showed up. She rivaled Barack Obama. Nobody turned up to listen to Joe Biden. And John McCain didn't pull those kinds of numbers and the base wouldn't have turned out to GOTV for him either.

Don't believe the haters. Palin isn't responsible for the loss and McCain supposed "hewing to the right" didn't do it either.

On what positions, pray tell, did McCain go right and lose? Drilling? Polls throughout the summer showed Americans in favor of drilling, 70-30%.

Similarly, on immigration, Americans are opposed to amnesty and in favor enforcement. But McCain pretty much didn't say anything about immigration because he's personally in favor of amnesty.

Oh, and all that stuff about Palin supposedly believing that Africa was a country, and not a continent, get over yourselves, it was a hoax. Who's the idiot now?

Obama did in 2008 what Tony Blair did in 1997--he coopted traditionally conservative principles--like fiscal responsibility and tax cuts. How in the world could McCain let Obama steal tax cuts? But he did, by proposing "tax cuts" for 95% of Americans. On foreign policy, Obama even out-hawked John McCain with regard to Pakistan (proposing bombings and special forces incursions).

John McCain did not lose this election by being too conservative or adding Sarah Palin to the ticket.


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